Jmp petroleum technologies12/28/2023 Since the initial lockdown lows early last year they have rebounded sharply, albeit with the services sector still lagging given distancing restrictions and remain consistent with strong growth this year. Global Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) – surveys of purchasing managers at businesses in most major countries – are an excellent and timely guide to the state of the global economy. ![]() That said, there are some positive signs regarding vaccine efficacy beyond formal trials out of Israel where vaccination is above 30%.Ĭhart # 2 – global business conditions PMIs Uncertainty remains around vaccine effectiveness in preventing infection and serious illness, their effectiveness against new mutations, how long protection lasts for, what portion of the population will need exposure or vaccination for herd immunity, etc. Global new cases have slowed again lately but this appears to owe more to the latest round of lockdowns as only around 5% of developed countries’ populations and less in emerging countries have been vaccinated. Key to watch will be the trend in new coronavirus cases and deaths. The deployment of vaccines holds hope for a sustained global reopening and return to something more normal and our base case is that this will be successful over the next year or so. This note looks at seven charts we see as critical to the outlook. And we are likely to see a further shift in relative returns to investments that benefit from recovery – resources, industrials, tourism stocks and financials. Our high-level investment view is that while shares are vulnerable to a short term correction having run up hard since early November, overall investment returns will be solid this year on the back of economic recovery (driven by stimulus and the deployment of vaccines allowing a more sustained reopening) at the same time that interest rates remain low.
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